SIGNALS

Good morning students and welcome to Backstabbing for Beginners. In this class, you will learn how to betray like a pro. As we will see, there are many ways to screw over another party. But all backstabbing can be boiled down to two easy steps: Step 1: Plunge the knife. Step 2: Twist the knife.

Using these two easy steps, you too can really mess someone up. Over time you will develop clever ways to embellish and personalize your backstabbing, but these betrayal fundamentals will always stand you in good stead.

All of which brings us to Hollywood. Alert readers will remember that in my last blog, The Lasso of Truth, we examined the blockbuster news that Warner Bros. will release Wonder Woman 1984 both theatrically and to HBO Max. Whether this was a smart business decision or not remains to be seen. There is also the chance that the movie is a stinker. One indisputable fact is that it screws over movie theaters. They have watched the rise of streaming platforms with concern, and now their nightmares are materializing.

Now, after the plunging in the knife, Warner Bros. has announced that it will twist it. Its entire slate of movies for 2021, some 17 movies in all, 17 movies originally intended for theatrical release, will be simultaneously released to both HBO Max and movie theaters. If you own a movie theater, or a chain of movie theaters, this news is not welcome.

Of course, it's all because of the pandemic. In an upcoming blog I will go into the matter in some detail, so I won't dwell on details here. Suffice it to say that (1) movie studios need income, (2) movie theaters can't deliver it, (3) streaming platforms need content more than ever, (4) streaming platforms are intensely competing with one another, and (5) streaming platforms see this as an opportunity to establish supremacy over theaters. Whew! That's a lot of sufficing.

Warner's latest announcement hit Hollywood like a a bomb in a B movie. HBO Max will show the movies for only one month, while theatrical showing continues. Big-budget films such as Dune, and a new Matrix installment will debut simultaneously on TV. Move theaters are in shock. Why did Warner do this?

Warner is owned by AT&T, which also owns HBO Max. Clearly, AT&T decided that even with the imminent arrival of vaccines, a loss in theatrical revenue was inevitable. Thus it was prudent to hedge the loss into at least an advantageous boost for HBO Max. Still, it is surprising that the entire slate for 2021 would be wholly given to HBO Max, rather than a more incremental approach.

The rise of Netflix has shaken the industry to its core, and led the studios to reevaluate their business model. Perhaps movie studios have concluded that the future of the movie business lies in streaming, and not in theaters. Perhaps after deciding they wanted to make this move, they still didn't want to take the risk, or suffer through several years of poor revenue while the industry transitioned. Now, the pandemic gives them the perfect excuse to make a clean break. If Disney follows suit with Disney Plus, it truly is the end for movie theaters. As one Hollywood executive wryly noted, “I guess the movie theaters will just be Halloween stores now.”

Class, thank you for your kind attention. Next time, we will discuss another, more treacherous form of backstabbing. Although more complex, the technique can be boiled down to three easy steps: Step 1: Plunge the knife. Step 2: Twist the knife. Step 3: Repeat steps 1 and 2.