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The year 2000 was a box office record breaker for the film industry, but the chance of repeating that feat in 2001 is being dimmed by the possibility of labor strikes that could halt film production for months.

Through mid-December, US theaters sold $6.93 billion worth of tickets, an increase of slightly more than half of one percent over the same period the previous year. Due to an increase in ticket prices, it isn't clear whether a larger number of tickets was sold, but, at the very least, 2000 managed to exceed the dollar volume of 1999, itself a record year.

Prospects for 2001 and beyond are not as rosy, because contracts have yet to be renewed between the studios and members of the Writers Guild of America (WGA), the Screen Actors Guild (SAG), and the American Federation of Television and Radio Artists (AFTRA). The WGA contract ends May 1, 2001; while the actors' contracts expire July 1. A prolonged work stoppage could cost the industry as much as $2 billion per month, according to estimates prepared by the Alliance of Motion Picture and Television Production Executives (AMPTP), an association representing the studios in negotiations with the unions.

A prolonged strike by commercial actors earlier this year was viewed by some in the industry as a possible precursor to one against feature film companies. When that strike was settled, spokespeople for SAG and AFTRA played down talk of a strike against the studios, pointing to the long lead time before next summer's contract renewal dates. Key issues this time around include better compensation for actors and writers for sales of DVDs, videotapes, Internet content, and programming carried on cable TV and in foreign markets.

Failure to reach agreement on any point will probably result in a strike, the impact of which won't be felt by moviegoers until the following year. Most films set for release in 2001 are already in advanced stages of production.

In the event of a serious decrease in the number of new releases, theater owners could be very hard hit. Many are reeling—no pun intended—from a frenzy of overbuilding that has taken place over the past few years, and are finding it difficult to service the debt even in the present market. An economic slowdown combined with a production halt could lead to severe attrition among movie theaters. According to some reports, an unintentional production slowdown could occur if the contract issues aren't settled by February, as many actors and production companies will be reluctant to sign deals for projects that may be interrupted. SAG and AFTRA representatives met with studio executives early in December and plan to resume discussions soon after the holidays.