HDTV: Two Steps Forward, One Step Back

Two years ago it was widely predicted that, by summer 2000, high-definition television would be pretty well established. At mid-year of that target date, the industry is still bickering over technical specifications and terminology, receiver prices are still high, and there is only a token amount of HD programming available.

Sports and movies are the format's two biggest draws, yet ABC has just announced that Monday Night Football won't be broadcast this year in HD. In late June, the network called off discussions with the Ackerley Group about renting its 720p truck, which ABC used last year for MNF. The Ackerley truck is the only one of its kind, and at this point it appears football fans will have to wait until at least the 2001 Super Bowl to see the game in all its hi-def glory. ABC does plan to boost the number of HDTV movies it will put on this year. Some primetime series may appear in the format as well, possibly subsidized by consumer-electronics manufacturers.

Cable TV providers are still balking at the prospect of carrying the bandwidth-intensive HD signals, making Direct Broadcast Satellite services seem the best solution for many people. Both EchoStar and DirecTV have increased their HD offerings lately, and indicate their willingness to continue. One result: DBS is enjoying a growth spurt, while cable gains are stagnant.

A study recently released by the Satellite Broadcasting and Communications Association shows DBS making enormous inroads in cabled areas. Of the new DBS subscribers surveyed (those with fewer than three months on the service), 70% have cable available to their homes, an increase from 60% last year. "Clearly, these figures show that a growing number of our new subscribers have the choice of cable, and are choosing to go with satellite TV," said SBCA senior VP Patricia Andrews. It would seem that DBS and HDTV are a marriage made in heaven.

Meanwhile, the Advanced Television Standards Committee continues to wrangle with HDTV reception problems. The technical standard chosen for broadcasting HDTV in North America has been demonstrated to be particularly susceptible to signal attenuation and multipath problems caused by buildings, mountains, bridges, and other environmental artifacts. Recent tests in Baltimore and Los Angeles indicate that antenna orientation is critical for optimum reception of HDTV broadcasts, the same situation that 25 years ago caused consumers to embrace cable TV.

Last week, trade groups for broadcasters and equipment makers again argued over field tests intended to compare digital-transmission technologies. Eager to get a standard—any standard—in place so that retailers can begin moving HD products in earnest, the Consumer Electronics Association has urged the National Association of Broadcasters and the Association for Maximum Service Television to reconsider planned side-by-side tests of the current DTV modulation method, 8-VSB, and COFDM, the digital transmission standard chosen in Europe.

Broadcasters are justifiably worried that 8-VSB is unsuitable for indoor reception, and are reluctant to hamstring themselves with a system that might not be ideal. COFDM's performance may be better than 8-VSB, but the CEA is eager to get on with the business of selling gear. A substantial renegade movement led by Sinclair Broadcasting has called for the overhaul of the standard, but the Federal Communications Commission has yet to step in and make a ruling, preferring instead to "let the market decide."

That approach might work if the market knew what it was deciding. Retailers are rebelling against a recent ruling about digital television terminology that they believe will lead to more, not less, confusion among consumers. What is "digital television"? What is "interactive television"? For that matter, what is "high-definition television"? The answers to these questions vary depending on who is answering them. According to the CEA's own statistics, there are more than 97 million TV-equipped households in the US. Despite the electronics industry's happy announcements of a few thousand units sold to early adopters, most video fans are wisely adopting a wait-and-see attitude toward HDTV.

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