Are You Bullish on Vinyl?

So anyway, I was standing in line at my local FedEx store. I’m there quite a bit, returning review products from whence they came. A nice lady comes up behind me with a box measuring about 12 x 12 x 12. It looks heavy, so I offer to hold it for her. “I hope it’s not too heavy,” she says. “It’s my old records—for my 16-year-old nephew. He loves records.” Hmm, I think to myself. Is this an omen—has she handed me some kind of business opportunity?

I don’t know what her listening tastes are. The box might have had virgin 180-gram imported Beatles, or well-worn copies of Mantovani and His Orchestra. Chances are, the nephew might never platter these particular discs. But the point is, he is enamored enough of vinyl to persuade his aunt to send him her stuff. He’s one of those kids, and I’m sure you can relate, who craves as much occupied linear shelf footage as possible. Files are fine, but shelf footage is cool.

The funny thing is that right after I got back from the FedEx store, I picked up the Wall Street Journal and bam!—right there was an article titled, “The Biggest Music Comeback of 2014: Vinyl Records.” As you might expect, the WSJ usually focuses on the business aspect of things, and this article contained some good business news, and some bad.

The good news is that sales of “old-fashioned vinyl records” were up a healthy 49 percent last year. In fact, the sales figures for the last several years are impressive. From a sales nadir of about 1 million units annually in 2005, 2006, and 2007, sales climbed nicely to over 4 million in 2012, 6 million in 2013, to 8 million in 2014. Who is buying all this plastic? The WSJ cites “younger people, especially indie-rock fans.” Also, clearly, there are other analog enthusiasts as well.

The bad news is that even as vinyl booms, the vinyl infrastructure is fading. According to the WSJ, “the creaky machines that make them [LPs] have not been manufactured for decades.” Another bad sign: An estimated 90 percent of the raw vinyl comes from one Thai company, and there are no vinyl suppliers left in the U.S. Furthermore, according to the WSJ, the 15 or so domestic “still-running factories” often experience breakdowns and materials shortages. Pressing plants must search worldwide to find old presses that can be refurbished and put back online. Another even more serious obstacle: Many of the artisans who have the analog skills to make quality records are reaching retirement age, and their decades of uniquely accumulated experience will retire with them.

Problems aside, the sales trend seems pretty strong, and materials shortages and lack of new equipment raises the question of why entrepreneurs haven’t stepped in to fill those voids. In many other industries, those kinds of opportunities would quickly attract investors, but so far, significant investment capital for vinyl apparently hasn’t appeared. Perhaps that’s because the vinyl business is small, representing about 2 percent of the music business. Or maybe the smart money is waiting to see if vinyl sales are sustainable.

So, when I see a woman mailing LPs to her eager nephew, is that a lucky omen of a business opportunity, or just another of life’s daily coincidences? I’m inclined to think the latter. But, you might think differently. Put another way, and given the strong sales figures, do you think vinyl is just a hipster fad, or does it represent a long-term business opportunity? Would you start a business that contracted with a chemical company to supply vinyl? Maybe start manufacturing custom record presses? Or go all-in and open your own LP pressing plant? Sure, everyone likes to spin a record now and then, but would you be willing to step up and invest your cold, hard cash in hot vinyl?

COMMENTS
dommyluc's picture

Why, the colors and images on VHS were so much "warmer" and more "natural" on VHS than these new-fangled formats like HDTV or Blu-ray or 4K!
You can laugh all you want at what I have just written, but this is the same kind of bilge I have thrown at me from some vinyl adherents. Hey, if you love vinyl, that's just fine. But I am really sick of people acting like there is scientific evidence that vinyl is superior to digital CD. I know that listening to music is a subjective experience and, as I have previously stated, if one prefers to listen to vinyl that is all well and good, but please don't foist that false meme that it is scientifically proven to be better than digital CD. I also, along with a lot of other older music lovers, remember what it was like growing up during the height of the vinyl era: lousy pressings that looked like they were squeezed from used asphalt and had enough hiss, clicks, and pops to rival a vat of Rice Crispies in milk. About the only respite I had were the Mobile Fidelity recordings that were priced about 4 to 5 times that of a regular LP, and even those half-speed masters were obsolete once CDs were introduced.
So if you want to devote yourself to a dead format, be my guest. But I'll sit back and listen to my 5.1 channel SACD of "Dark Side of the Moon" and stream all of the 1000+ CDs I have ripped in WAV format from my PC to my AV receiver.
Oh, and I hear Edison wax cylinders are also making a big comeback. I can't wait to hear "Sgt. Pepper" on that superior format!

Michael Fremer's picture

Guess what? I'm sick of idiotic comments like yours. You haven't a clue. So now that you've posted a bile filed, sarcastic and ridiculous comment after launching your own straw man about "science" and vinyl, come back at me all insulted and hurt.

victorv's picture

Doug Sax mastered the Dark Side SACD, read up on his preferences on some of the other partner sites. You might be inclined to buy some arcane technologies after you read his thoughts on mastering great music. Including some old 78's.

William Lee's picture

Buying new music in vinyl record makes no sense at least for new recordings. All the new music start in digital domain. Listeners are not getting the old analog recording where they expect to hear that analog signal press into the vinyl record. Perhaps the music industry needs to bring back the "AAD", "ADD", and "DDD" symbol that were in the back of the CD packaging.

Michael Fremer's picture

"All" new music does not start in the digital domain though most does. However, I'd much rather listen to a 96/24 file turned into a record than listen to it as a CD. What's more if the studio D/A converter is better than mine at home and the mastering is well done, the record can actually sound better than a file. Plus many people don't like computer audio interfaces and appreciate the vinyl playback experience. So I'd rather have the record than the file most of the time. And so would my readers.

K.Reid's picture

First and foremost, Ken Pohlmann's thought provoking article essentially asks whether vinyl is a good long term investment not a circular vinyl vs. digital battle. In my opinion and despite my love for vinyl, I don't see it proliferating to a mainstream product offering (though I was surprised to see a nice selection at my local Barnes & Nobles). The infrastructure is just not there for the scalability on a long term basis. In addition with Apple's upcoming streaming service and possible use of Meridian's MQA, higher quality sound maybe more accessible to the mass market. Further, the public would need to be re-educated on selecting a quality turntable. One can't go to a local BestBuy and hear a broad selection of turntables (not to mention set-up). The only recourse is a specialty dealer or online dealer like Audio Advisor, Needle Doctor, Music Direct, Acoustic Sounds, Crutchfield and others - the first 4 I would posit are unknown to most of the population. Looking at everything A-Z from a fiscal standpoint may not make sense to an "angel investor" willing to take a risk. That said, this younger generation may well dictate the fate or long term success of vinyl.
To Dommyluc, vinyl bashing is not needed and it's unfortunate that you obviously don't like virgin vinyl spinning on a quality turntable like a Project Debut Carbon, Xtension 10, Acoustic Signature or a Walker Procensium Black Diamond. Look at it from this point of view - that kid you see that's listening to Nick Jonas on his iPhone and then hears vinyl on a nice pair of speakers for the first time is likely to have taken first steps into our world where getting closer to the artists musical intent is the goal. If vinyl gets him or her there, then I am all for it.

We need comment and perspective on this blog from Michael Fremer of Stereophile and Analog Planet. Commentary from Robert Harley and John Atkinson of The Absolute Sound and Stereophile, respectively, would be welcome.

BTW, I brought a new Thorens TD206 turntable for close relatives and they love it because downloading quality digital is not exactly intuitive for them (computer set up, WAV vs. FLAC vs. DSD/DXD, DACs, Ethernet vs. Wireless, etc) especially if you are not an audiophile.

Michael Fremer's picture

Vinyl will not be mainstream and who cares? Neither will gourmet dining, exotic Italian sports cars or 4K video projectors for that matter. However, good vinyl playback can be had for under $1000 and there are millions of great records on the used market that people can pick up for next to nothing. That is one reason kids are getting into this in a big way. The ones that like it LIKE the physical format, LIKE the artwork, LIKE the shared experience and LIKE the sound too and I understand fully. I have a very sophisticated hi-rez digital system but records still sound better to my ears and more like live music.

You know i talk to vinyl fans all over the world and the percentage who are involved in the sciences and engineering would might surprise you. The number would certainly surprise the bitter poster above.

I also talk to a lot of musicians who are vinyl fans including well-known conductors and musicians. i had dinner with a member of the Vienna Philharmonic string section and he told me "half" the string section members preferred vinyl....so what we need here is less bitterness and more understanding.

Michael Fremer's picture

That article contains some serious factual errors and misquotes. For one thing: there are new record presses being manufactured. GZ in the Czech Republic has added a few new ones and will add more. Another well-known pressing plant is doing likewise. So the reverse engineering has been done and the presses can be manufactured and are being manufactured. What's more, the gentleman quoted in the story who supplies some of the processing infrastructure was seriously misquoted. There is NOTHING about this industry that is "dying". Quite the opposite!

But you know Ken, we debated this subject DECADES ago on the CBS radio network. Don't you remember? I was touting vinyl even during the "darkest" time for the medium and i expressed my disgust for CD sound. I still maintain that CD sound is unacceptable and that it actually makes people not want to sit down and listen to music to the exclusion of all else and I think where music listening has gone in the 21st century vindicated what I said then: people do NOT sit and listen to music as they once did and all of the excuses about "other things to do" is beside the point and a deflection. Especially since one of the things young people tell me they LIKE about going to vinyl is that for the first time, they find themselves actually sitting down and LISTENING through a record while doing nothing else.....

Michael Fremer's picture

At the end you said to me "I bet you are also one of those tube guys. You know the Russian MIGS have tubes and now look what's happened to the Soviet Union". And my response was: "Yes, Ken, but their planes sound so much better than ours!"

Michael Fremer's picture

Acoustic Sounds' Chad Kassem did open a pressing plant a few years ago. He just keeps adding presses to keep up with the demand. He's running 2 or 3 shifts 7 days a week keeping up with the growing demand.

I predicted all of what's going on now years ago when vinyl was given up for dead. Why? Because my ears told me that CDs sounded awful and that eventually people would figure it out. Now vinyl spreads virally the way MP3s did among kids with T1 dorm connections just about the same time i went on my vinyl crusade!

Rich67's picture

There is no scientific proof that either format "sounds better" We know that there are physical limitations to the ability to record and reproduce the full spectrum of well understood human hearing. We know that the digital recording, at least at significant bit rates, is capable of recording these extremes, but is the reproduction flawed. None of this matters. Listening to music is the subjective experience of a waveform (compression and rarefaction) as perceived and interpreted by your BRAIN.. Listen to what pleases you most. Let's kill this stupid argument. What's better, for you, is what you like. The end!

K.Reid's picture

It is good to hear that there is a new pressing plant opening resulting from increased vinyl demand. I like the way quality vinyl sounds on a good turntable. There is something very engaging about the whole experience that Mike Fremer alludes to. I recall what a moving experience it was a couple years ago when at the New York Audio show I listened to a blues record on reissued vinyl through Burmester speakers fed by a Walker Black Diamond. It was the first time I heard what a reference quality LP can sound like. It led me to buy my first turntable and now I am hooked. Would be interesting to hear a continuum caliburn table against a DCS Vivaldi.

Michael Fremer's picture

I've done that! Interestingly the arguments in the digital domain are equally vociferous between the DSD and PCM people. It makes the analog vs. digital divide seem tame! Here's the thing: the history of music recorded in the analog domain always sounds better in its native format because digitization is a fundamentally different process that has its own particular sonic characteristics--despite those who claim its "perfection". I write this as I am sitting here reviewing a digital and Classd amplification system that digitizes my analog fed to it and sends it at 192/24 to the DACs in the amps....sounds great but not like AAA playback....

K.Reid's picture

Agreed that music recorded in analog sounds better. 2 years ago at NY audio show, MBL had a United Home Audio tape deck as its primary source and the music was truly spectacular and mesmerizing. Especially to those uninitiated in high end audio.

victorv's picture

I heard that same setup at a couple of shows. It is pretty spectacular.

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